Hopkins Trade Monitor #10 -How Smart Entrepreneurs Choose the Right Country for Expansion
Choosing the right country for expansion is one of the most important decisions an entrepreneur will make—and one of the most commonly misunderstood. Too often, this decision is driven by market size, growth projections, or where competitors appear to be winning. Those factors feel objective and defensible, but they rarely predict success.
Smart entrepreneurs approach country selection differently. They understand that international expansion is not primarily a decision driven by growth. It is an operating decision.
The Wrong Question: “Where Is the Biggest Market?”
Many expansion efforts begin with a simple question: Where is the biggest opportunity? Market size, total addressable demand, and favorable demographic trends dominate early conversations and boardroom slides.
While these indicators signal potential demand, they say very little about whether a company can actually operate effectively in that environment. Large markets are often complex, crowded, and unforgiving. Regulatory barriers, pricing pressure, partner dependency, and operational friction tend to increase with scale.
Market size creates interest. It does not ensure execution.
The Right Question: “Where Can We Operate Well?”
Smart entrepreneurs flip the question. Instead of asking where demand exists, they ask where their current operating model can perform with discipline and control.
This requires a hard look inward. Leaders must evaluate whether their pricing structure, decision-making authority, governance processes, reporting systems, and partner oversight mechanisms can withstand the complexities of international operations. If they cannot, expansion becomes reactive instead of strategic.
Countries that align with the organization’s operating realities—rather than aspirational capabilities—are far more likely to succeed.
Why “Obvious” Markets So Often Disappoint
Many entrepreneurs are surprised when expansion into well-known or “obvious” markets underperforms. These markets attract attention precisely because they appear safe or proven. In reality, they often expose organizational weaknesses faster than smaller or less visible markets.
Complex regulations, sophisticated competitors, and demanding customers leave little room for operational immaturity. Weak governance, unclear decision rights, and poor financial visibility are quickly punished.
Smaller or secondary markets, by contrast, frequently outperform early. They allow entrepreneurs to learn, adapt, and strengthen operating discipline before scaling into higher-risk environments.
Country Selection as an Operating Test
In Borderless Business, I argue that choosing a country is not a ranking exercise—it is an operating test. The right market challenges an organization without overwhelming it. It reveals weaknesses while still allowing leaders to correct them.
Smart entrepreneurs select countries where:
- Governance and control can be maintained
- Risk is visible and manageable
- The operating model works with minimal redesign
- Learning cycles are fast and inexpensive
This approach does not eliminate risk, but it makes risk survivable.
Expansion Rewards Discipline, Not Optimism
International growth rarely fails because the opportunity wasn’t real. It fails because leaders overestimated readiness and underestimated complexity.
Entrepreneurs who succeed globally resist the urge to chase the largest or loudest markets. Instead, they choose countries that fit how their business actually works today—and deliberately build capability before moving further.
Country selection done well feels methodical, even unexciting. That is not caution. It is discipline.
A Framework for Founders
This approach to country selection is explored in depth in Borderless Business: How Smart Entrepreneurs Expand Globally, particularly in the chapter focused on operating fit and market entry discipline. I also provide a practical Market Entry Diagnostic to help founders evaluate readiness before committing resources.
Choosing the right country will not guarantee success—but choosing the wrong one almost guarantees regret.
